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Yikes: Is This Where Publishing is Headed?

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Of the two, publishing is the more solid counterpart to recordings. But publishing is battling its own disruptive demons, and that became even more obvious today. During its morning financial review, Warner Music Group revealed a surprising, 14.9 percent quarterly drop in publishing revenues, one that featured declines across various licensing segments.

It looks like everything is getting the squeeze, and there's a story behind each one. On a constant-currency basis, mechanical revenue dropped 15.2% for the quarter, performance revenue declined 8.3%, and synchronization revenue slipped 4.0%. “The decline in performance and digital revenue primarily reflected the timing of cash collections," WMG offered.

Sounds like classic corporate double-speak, and separately, sources to Digital Music News noted that collection lagtimes are only delaying the inevitable. Let's see, though the drag from CDs is not a debate. “The mechanical revenue decline reflected the ongoing transition in the recorded music industry," Warner continued.

This is all the more reason for big-label dealmakers to accelerate their discussions. Which discussions, exactly? There's a great deal flying back-and-forth here, though the assets of WMG and EMI are definitely in play. According to one source tied into some of the dealmaking, Citigroup and other stakeholders have considered splitting and combining the publishing assets of both mega-labels. But that is just one of several possibilities on the table.

But getting back to the decline, let's not get out of hand. We also took a detailed look at previous publishing revenue totals at WMG, dating back to fiscal year 2005. And, we found something more stable than what we expected. This was all pulled from publicly-available, SEC filings for the fiscal years ending September 30th, measured across constant currencies (WMG went public in mid-2005).

WMG, Music Publishing Revenues, WMG (in millions)

  • 2005: $597
  • 2006: $538
  • 2007: $623
  • 2008: $615
  • 2009: $587
  • 2010: $556

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