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Steve Jobs Probably Won't Come Back to Apple

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In a letter to Apple staff on Wednesday, Jobs said he was taking a five-month medical leave because his health issues are “more complex than I originally thought."

In the note, Jobs promised to return to Apple in the summer, which many are hoping is true. “Apple won't be the same w/o his creative leadership," tweeted Heredes. “Praying for your health, Steve."

But Jobs' letter contradicts a statement the CEO published just last week, in which he said he was “undergoing a simple and straightforward treatment" for a hormone imbalance. This letter gave the impression that Jobs merely needed to gain weight, and would continue as normal as Apple's CEO.

Now, however, Jobs' ill health appears to be much more serious. He is taking five months off work, when he took only a month away from Apple after undergoing surgery for pancreatic cancer in 2004. The contradictory statements from Apple and Jobs are leading some to speculate that Jobs' latest missive is the first step in a phased goodbye.

“My bet is he's not coming back," said Roger Kay, an Endpoint Technologies analyst. “Despite all the protestations, I think he has cancer. They talk about digestive this and digestive that, but ... forget all the buzz you're hearing. Just look at the photos."

ThinkPanmure analyst Vijay Rakesh said it's been obvious for some time that Jobs' health condition is critical. “What he's indicating is it needs more urgent attention," Rakesh said.

The following facts derived from recent reports suggest Jobs' latest letter from Apple is unreliable:

1. Health experts told Wired.com that Jobs' initial statement about his health was contradictory and made little sense. They speculated he had anything from hyperthyroidism to a new form of cancer.

2. Jobs did not deliver his keynote speech at Macworld Expo 2009. Before the show, Apple said this move was purely for business reasons. Later, an insider told Gizmodo that Jobs was not delivering a keynote because of his declining health. A day before Macworld, Jobs said he opted out because of his health.

3. In recent press events, Tim Cook and Phil Schiller, Apple's COO and vice president of marketing, respectively, have been sharing the stage with Jobs more prominently than in the past. Analysts view this as a sign that Apple is preparing to dethrone Jobs.

4. Jobs' increasingly gaunt figure between public appearances in the past year is a possible sign of active cancer, according to Dr. Alan Astrow, Director of Hematology and Oncology at the Maimonides Cancer Center.

Apple customers, journalists, bloggers, investors and analysts are hoping that Jobs is well and will retake the reins in the summer. Shortly after Jobs' announcement on Wednesday, Twitter lit up with “get well" wishes for the CEO.

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