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The Online CD Wars |
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If the reports are correct, CD Now and N2K's Music Boulevard, two of the larger online CD merchants are soon to merge. In a stock trade (the above charts indicate the value of that), CD Now will absorb Music Blvd. Their spinmeisters claim the new company run by the Olim twins, will control 45% of the online CD market.
Oh Really? That indicates a level of brand loyalty presently absence from the world of e-commerce. Both companies went public with a big splash last year and have since continued to hemorrhage cash. N2K is fighting a class action suit by some of its investors claiming the company inflated their profit estimates. Profit estimates? N2K and CDNow are losing money and their stock plunging faster than Madonna's necklines. Speculation abounds that the two new media empires-to-be are looking to go after the dreaded amazon.com, the successful online bookstore that now sells CDs as well. Francis Gaskins, editor of Gaskins's IPO Desktop, says he doubts that two wrong companies can make a right one. "They will still be committed to spending all that money with all their partnerships, and their margins are razor thin," says Mr. Gaskins. He suggests that the companies would do best if they did merged and then sold to a company like Barnes & Noble. Hey, there's a burgeoning business for online CD sales, and lots of people want a piece of it. Borders, Tower, Columbia House, no shortage of competition. The problem is, it's a high stakes game requiring almost constant transfusions of cash. I remember when Nixon went to China and relations between the two superpowers were reopened after a near thirty year cold war. Immediately after that, the talk was, new markets for American goods. Two billion new consumers. Coke and Pepsi practically went nuts trying to establish a foothold on the Chinese market. The same bunker mentality dominates the online CD sweepstakes. The Net arrives in the mid-90s and quickly, with flashing dollar signs clouding their vision, enter the marketers, the money men, the entrepreneurs. From their perspective, this unprecedented ability to reach out to and track interconnected consumers is a modern day equivalent of the California Gold Rush. These people aren't thinking about sharing information and using the Net as a medium for ideas, they have another goal. Big bucks and power. The online retail market is expected to mushroom from $4.8 billion in sales this year to more than $17 billion in 2001. CD Now went from $387, their first month selling online four years ago, to 11 million dollars last quarter. Even so, they're still losing money and can't even fathom profitability until 2001. A forty four million dollar yearly gross may sound substantial but the marketing and daily operating costs of an on-line store are staggering. The necessary funds to bankroll the technology and content requirements of these enterprises could easily bankrupt a third world country. So what's the big deal? These are stores, retailers, merchants. They don't create anything except the illusion that they're helping jazz by selling more product. With the advent of digital distribution and the growing power of this decentralized medium, it's obvious the CD medium and the long standing, multi-leveled record industry will be obsolete in a few years. The online stores are dinosaurs soon to become extinct. They're based on the old paradigm, the middle man. With this technology, point-to-point digitial commerce eliminates the middle man. No record company, no distributor, no record store, no online merchant. Just the creator, and the listener. The revolution has begun. Check out MP3.com for a look at the future, happening now. As for buying CDs online, I must admit, I buy by price. I don't care if it's Amazon or Borders or CD Universe. I buy from the vendor with the lowest price. Hey, it's the American way! Visit Bird Lives weekly for web site reviews, our listening suggestions, and a new outrageous Diatribe from the Pariah. Comments/Questions to The Pariah |
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